ProPredictions Jan 2, 2005

ProPredictions Jan 2, 2005

Top10News:
1. Tsunami: death toll ends up 200K, double that with disease, $1B+
in aid;
2. UN/Annan: appears to not be able to get in a leadership role with
the Tsunami;
3. Lasers in cockpits: nothing definite yet but evidence of suspected
terrorist cells soon (tba);
4. MadCow/Canada: more cases found and alarm goes up;
5. NKorea: nuke threat is real and will be tested soon with no regard
to any warnings;
6. US/President: will get tort reform, SS privatization;
7. MiddleEast/Iraq: Iraq election goes ok, new inroads to
Arab(Palenstein)/Israel peace soon (tba);
8. Courts: Blake-guilty, Jackson-guilty of lesser charges
(endangering minors);
9. Sports: SUGAR BOWL AUBURN over Virginia Tech (see ProSports for
all predictions)
10. Entertainment: Fockers stays on top for one more week, breaking
records;
11. Business: airlines in more trouble, a major goes under soon (tba);

GlobalWatch: (tba)
ChildFinders: ETHAN SOTO-CAPPS, Non Family Abduction, Missing 12/31/04
http://www.missingkids.org/missingkids/servlet/PubCaseSearchServlet?act=viewChildDetail&LanguageCountry=en_US&searchLang=en_US&caseLang=en_US&orgPrefix=NCMC&caseNum=1005161&seqNum=1
CrimeSolvers: (tba)
VanishedFinders: (tba)

MARKETS:
DJIA (10783.01 12/31/04): flat0.5%/dn1%; ST (Feb05): 11,000+; MT
(Apr05): 11,500+; LT (3rdQtr05): forecast coming, seems to be surprise;
SP500 (1211.92 12/31/04): flat0.5%/dn1%; ST (Feb05): ; MT (Apr05): ;
LT (3rdQtr05): forecast coming, seems to be surprise;
Nasdaq (2175.44 12/31/04): flat0.5%/dn1%; ST (Feb05): 2250+; MT
(Apr05): 2350+; LT (3rdQtr05): forecast coming, seems to be surprise;
TNotes (100-08 12/31/04): flat0.5%; ST (Feb05): ; MT (Apr05): ; LT
(3rdQtr05): forecast coming, seems to be surprise;
Oil (43.45 12/31/04): ST (Feb05): 40.00; MT (Apr05): 35.00; LT
(3rdQtr05): forecast coming, seems to be surprise;
FedRate (2.25 12/31/04): ST (Feb05): 2.50; MT (Apr05): 3.00; LT
(3rdQtr05): 3.50;
Gold (438.40 12/31/04): ST (Feb05): 425; MT (Apr05): 400; LT
(3rdQtr05): forecast coming, seems to be surprise;

ECONOMIC-REPORTS this week (consensus):
Construction Spending (0.2%): as expected, slightly higher;
IMS Mfg (58.2%): as expected;
Factory Orders (1.0%): as expected, slightly higher;
Auto Sales (5.2M): higher than expected;
Light Truck (8.0M): higher than expected;
IMS NonMfg (61.0%): as expected;
Jobless Claims (335K): as expected;
Unemployment (5.4%): as expected, slightly lower;
Nonfarm Payrolls (175,000): as expected;
Consumer Credit ($6.0B): as expected, slightly higher;
RESULTS (Nov 2002-now):
Marketocracy: 25.4% annualized (top 56.6%, bottom -0.5%)
Futures (MockTrading): 244.5% annualized
Portfolio-Conv: 25.4%
Portfolio-Aggr: 37.7%
Portfolio-Spec: 49.9%
(all documented at marketocracy.com and mocktrading.com)

SIGNIFICANT PREDICTIONS (most noteworthy and when not apparent, even
counter-intuitive):
1. Iraq war start and finish
2. most DJIA, SP500 and Nasdaq highs and lows
3. Sadam disappearing, then being captured
4. Kerry Democratic nominee, Edwards running mate
5. Bush reelected

COMPARISONS:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes the market's largest
blue chip stocks, gained 3.15 percent for the year. The broader
Standard & Poor's 500's annual gain: 8.99 percent. If dividends had
been reinvested, the total return is 10.87 percent. The Russell 2000
Index closed at 651.57, representing a 16.99 percent gain for the
year. Conservative investors who clung to bonds were left behind with
returns of just under 6 percent. And there were many in that
position, the experts say.
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/10540814.htm?1c ''Investors
spent much of 2004 on the sidelines of the stock market, playing a
waiting game and investing in bonds and real estate -- areas of the
market they believed would deliver a high yield with a lower risk than
stocks,'' Ernie Ankrim, chief investment strategist for Russell
Investment Group, an investment management and producer of indexes,
wrote in a letter to clients today Jan. 1.
Fox Business News - Cashin In Challenge
1. Dagen McDowell 13.36%
2. Jonas Max 6.99%
3. Jonathan Hoenig 4.00%
4. Wayne Rogers 3.14%
Top Funds
ave 12%
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a9DE0SbsIkkM&refer=news_index

``It was a tough year to get the return,'' said Hans Olsen, 42, who
manages $2 billion as chief investment officer at Bingham Legg
Advisers in Boston. ``In 2004, if you produced market-beating
performance, you worked hard to get it.''
Largest Funds:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfundresults.asp?View=Large&Category=4&Symbol=$LRGF

18.31 Vanguard-PrimeCap
12.52 Vanguard-TotalStock
12.37 Davis-NYVenture
11.96 LeggMason-Value
10.74 Vanguard-500Index
10.73 Fidelity-Spartan
9.84 Fidelity-G&I
7.84 Fidelity
7.49 Fidelity-Magellan
5.84 Fidelity-Dividend
Top Funds (3yrs):
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfundresults.asp?Category=4&Symbol=$HF

19.36 Hartford-CapApprecA
19.06 Hartford-CapApprecB
18.32 Gartmore-NationwideA
17.99 MairsPower-Growth
17.53 GoldmanSachs-Equity
17.53 Gartmore-NationwideC
17.43 Gartmore-NationwideB
16.03 MorganStanley-Equally
13.95 CMG-Strategic
12.55 Tocqueville
Top Funds (3mos): (annualized)
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfundresults.asp?Category=4&Symbol=$HF

18.70 (74.8) ProFunds-ConsCycInv
18.34 (73.4) ProFunds-ConsCycSvc
17.90 (71.6) ProFunds-UltraBull
17.79 (71.2) Rydex-TitanH
17.58 (70.3) Rydex-TitanC
17.58 (70.3) ProFunds-UltraBullSvc
16.61 ( ) ProFunds-ConsNonCycInv
16.37 ( ) ProFunds-ConsNonCycSvc
15.49 ( ) PBHG-Focused
15.10 (60.4) IMS-Strategic
IBD-100 50.8% =84.7/20x12
IBD-NewAmerica 26.5%=166.0/75x12